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Coin-toss iteration

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Coin-toss iteration is a medium quant interview question on probability.

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What this iterative probability question tests

This is a medium-difficulty probability question that combines discrete outcomes with multi-stage reasoning. It asks you to reason about a sequential process where the state space shrinks unpredictably at each step, and to determine the likelihood of a specific terminal condition.

To solve problems of this type, candidates typically need to set up a recurrence relation or use symmetry arguments to avoid enumerating all possible paths. The key insight is recognizing what determines the game's outcome and finding a clean way to compute it without brute-force case analysis. Firms value solutions that are both rigorous and elegant.

  • Recursive probability structures and state-dependent outcomes
  • Symmetry and invariant properties in sequential processes
  • Reasoning about absorbing states and terminal conditions