Seasons change

What this permutation and probability question tests

This is an easy probability question that combines basic counting with the concept of sampling without replacement. It's the kind of warm-up question quant firms use to establish that you can set up a problem cleanly and compute a simple probability.

The core skill is recognizing that you're asking: "what is the probability of a specific outcome structure when sampling from a finite set multiple times?" To solve it, you need to count the total number of possible outcomes, identify how many of those satisfy your constraint, and form the ratio. The key insight is understanding how the constraint (distinctness across trials) changes the denominator or numerator, or both.

• Uniform probability spaces and counting
• Independence and sequential choice
• Permutations and combinatorial constraints